By Baker Li TAIPEI, May 26 (Reuters) - Shares of Taiwan's China Airlines (2610) are poised to end a recent bull run and dive sharply on Monday as a fatal crash whose cause is unknown reminded investors of the carrier's poor safety record. The crash was the airline's fourth fatal accident since 1998, dealing a fresh blow to China Airlines' passenger and cargo businesses and were certain to drive up its insurance costs, analysts said. China Airlines' Boeing 747-200 with 225 people aboard crashed into the sea en route from Taipei to Hong Kong on Saturday. Rescuers on Sunday found 78 bodies and debris from the crashed plane but no survivors have been found so far. "There'll be panic selling (in China Airlines shares) when the market opens tomorrow. It is very possible the stock will plunge the (daily seven percent) maximum for at least two sessions," said Albert Lin, research vice president at Hotung Securities. Investors will be cautious on the stock until there is a clearer picture on safety improvement and the value of insurance costs, Lin said. China Airlines' shares closed up T$0.30 or 1.88 percent at T$16.30 on Friday. Bolstered by growing optimism on direct links with China, the stock has risen 78 percent since last October, outperforming a 66 percent rise on the bigger TAIEX (TWII) index over the same period. "Chances are high for the company to lose money this year," Lin added but gave no estimated figures. China Airlines vice president James Chang said the crash was likely to force it to cut its 2002 financial forecast. "It will cause fairly heavy pressure on our earnings. Financial forecasts we have submitted to the Stock Exchange may have to be revised next week," Chang told a news conference. Before the disaster, China Airlines forecast a pretax profit of T$1.4 billion in 2002, compared with T$1.64 billion recorded in 2001. China Airlines' 2001 net profits fell 39 percent from the 2000 level and was its worst performance since 1998. It made a net loss of T$2.19 billion, or T$1.08 per share, in 1998 when an Airbus carrying holidaymakers back from Bali crashed and disintegrated near Taipei's international airport, killing all 196 aboard and seven on the ground. That was a swing from a net profit of T$2.35 billion, or T$1.20 per share, in 1997. TAIWAN-HONG KONG ROUTE The crash came when Taiwan and Hong Kong were in the middle of negotiations of a new flight agreement. The last deal expired in 2001 and was later extended until end-June 2002. China Airlines said on Saturday the crash could affect the number of flights assigned to the carrier. The Taiwan-Hong Kong route is known as Asia's "Golden Route" for its high contribution to airline profits. The busy 70-minute flights between Taiwan and Hong Kong generate sales of around T$3 billion for China Airlines annually, Hotung Securities' Lin said. "It's bad for China Airlines but it's good for EVA Airways," Lin said. EVA Airways (2618), the island's second largest carrier which also operates the Taiwan-Hong Kong route, is expected to increase flights at the expense of China Airlines and double sales from the route to T$2 billion annually, he said. China Airlines lost its near-monopoly on international routes after rival EVA Airways took off in 1991, but still has lucrative routes to Hong Kong, Japan, Southeast Asia and the United States. EVA expects to break even in the second quarter and make a 2002 pretax profit of T$1.03 billion on sales of T$58.83 billion, against a 2001 pretax loss of T$3.28 billion on sales of T$52.45 billion, EVA's first full-year loss since 1994. EVA shares fell 1.18 per cent to close at T$12.60 on Friday. (US$=T$34.4) ©2002 Reuters Limited.