ANALYSIS-Asian airlines see pickup but still cautious

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By Peh Soo Hwee

SINGAPORE, March 8 (Reuters) - Six months after the September 11 attacks on
the United States, Singapore travel agent Alicia Seah is no longer having
sleepless nights over lost business.

"With a workload coming in like this, sleeping has not been too bad," said
the senior manager for business development at SA (UIC) Tours, one of the
city state's largest travel agencies.

Seah has every reason to smile. At a travel fair in early March, the firm
kept up with sales volumes seen in 2001 though it had to dangle more
attractive deals as some airlines cut fares by around 20 percent.

"During our travel fair promotion period, we achieved our sales target of
S$10 million (US$5.5 million)," she said. "We are optimistic that the second
half will pick up even better."


Despite Seah's buoyant mood, Asian carriers say it is too early to pop the
champagne as the gradual recovery seen in passenger traffic has been
prompted mainly by cheaper fares.

"There's been a slight increase. It's primarily been driven by pricing,"
said Stephen Thompson, Qantas Airways' (QAN) regional general manager for
Southeast Asia.

"I wouldn't say the market has come back completely. There's still a long
way to go before we get anywhere near where we were prior to September 11."

The attacks on U.S. landmarks on that day resulted in a record US$10 billion
loss for major airlines in 2001. Globally, passenger and freight traffic has
continued to drop in January, but less steeply than in December.

Tourism is a key foreign exchange earner for most Asian countries.

Airlines have responded with cheaper fares. In a promotion that ended in
January, Asia's biggest capitalised carrier Singapore Airlines (SIA) (SIAL)
offered fares up to 50 percent off market rates to various destinations in
Asia, Europe and the United States, attracting more than 25,000 bookings.

"Forward bookings are encouraging as many airlines have introduced
promotional fares to help stimulate travel during the current low season,"
an SIA spokesman said.

"We expect to see a gradual strengthening of prices to popular destinations
over the next few months."

SIA saw its overall load factor recovering during January in year-on-year
terms after 11 months of declines. But analysts were uncertain whether the
turnaround was strong enough to help it escape losses for the full year
ended in March.

NEGATIVE TERRITORY

Richard Stirland, director-general at the Association of Asia Pacific
Airlines, said while January data revealed the fall in Asian passenger
traffic and revenue passenger kilometres was not as severe as after
September 11, there was no upturn yet.

"It picked up in December and January," he said. "The actual decline was
less but we're still in negative territory."

Overall, the number of passengers fell 5.6 percent in Asia in January
compared with a year ago, while revenue passenger kilometres dropped about
7.5 percent. The drop was more pronounced in long haul than short haul
services.

Japan's two main international carriers, Japan Airlines (9201) and All
Nippon Airways (9202) have said they were detecting signs of recovery in
demand for international flights but have stopped short of revising
full-year profit estimates.

Both slashed full-year group net profit forecasts to a loss in the wake of
the September 11 attacks.

One of the region's smaller international carriers, Air New Zealand (AIR),
said the sector faced more capacity and competition, putting pressure on
fares and yields.

CORPORATE TRAVEL WEAK

While leisure travel is seeing some signs of a pickup, it has been tougher
filling seats in first and business class cabins -- the biggest revenue
generators for airlines -- as companies review the need for travel during
hard times.

"The leisure market reacts to price, so you can turn the leisure market
round a lot more quickly than you can the corporate market," Thompson of
Qantas said.

"We're holding our own and doing well on the leisure side and it's just
trying to restore confidence in the marketplace and getting corporates to
get back."

It's no small concern with carriers like Cathay Pacific Airways (0293) and
SIA deriving about 40 percent of revenues from business and first class
cabins, compared with about 15 percent for most other Asian airlines.

Cathay posted an 87 percent plunge in 2001 net profit as a huge drop in
traffic after the attacks pushed it into a second-half loss. Asia's fourth
largest airline by capacity said it remained cautious on prospects for
recovery as business travellers were still reluctant to fly.

Thailand's national airline Thai Airways (THAI) has taken out full-page ads
in Singapore's newspapers offering "Thai hospitality at unrivalled prices"
on business class. A sales manager at the airline said fares had been
reduced by 30-40 percent.

YIELDS UNDER PRESSURE

"Corporate travellers are becoming a lot more cost-conscious," said Patrick
Lai, vice president of e-commerce at Abacus International, a provider of
booking and ticketing systems for travel agents.

"That is putting a lot of pressure on the airlines to maintain their
yields."

But Stirland said attractive deals were needed to eventually give yields a
lift.

"Only by pushing up the load factor by a combination of low fares and
reducing capacity can you create the kind of pressure necessary to actually
push up the yields and systematically then withdraw the discounts from the
market," he said.

(With additional reporting by bureaus in Hong Kong, Tokyo and Wellington)

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