This was posted on www.tsalounge.com, I don't know who wrote it but it is pretty much on target. Airline Hunting Season Begins Another interesting article on the Jan 18th deadline to inspect all checked bags... -------------- Friday, January 18: Airline Hunting Season Begins It's real possible that January 18 will be Black Friday for the airline industry. It's real simple. They are being required to do what really can't be done, and what won't do what it's supposed to do. And when it doesn't work, they'll get all the blame. We're talking, of course, about screening all bags for explosives. We're talking, of course, about something that can't be done because the equipment, the technology, and the facilities aren't in place. We're talking about a program that could be the next step in helping Mr. Bin Laden get to his goal of torpedoing the economic viability of our air transportation industry. The hard fact is that nobody can screen all luggage for things that go boom, and worse, the option most airlines will be forced to use -- bag matching -- doesn't screen for anything. Except for maybe how politicized aviation security has become. But the political beauty of it all is that when the well-known substance hits the electrical convenience this Friday, as it may, it will all be the airline industry's fault, according to the DOT, Congress, and a host of fruitcake consumer groups. "They've had two months to get this done, and they're still dragging their feet" will be the refrain. (Hey, this comes from Washington. Reality need not apply.) First, It's A Scam. The Aviation & Transportation Security Act is a legislative bait-and-switch worthy of the sleaziest plaid-jacketed used car salesman. This is just one part of a very large Congressional confidence game. Promise what can't be delivered, make the press conference, and then forget about reality. Because there aren't enough explosive screening machines (never mind that they may not be reliable), and there aren't enough dogs to sniff everything, and because hand-searching is nothing more than an exercise in massaging somebody else's Jockey shorts, airlines can't effectively screen for explosives. Impossible. Everybody knows this. But nobody wants to say it. Congress in its wisdom allowed a fourth option to "screen" for explosives. Match all bags on a flight with passengers. That, of course, assumes that there is no such thing as a suicide terrorist, an assumption that didn't do much good on 9/11. But Congress and the incompetently managed DOT don't care about effectiveness, unless it's public relations effectiveness. So, come Friday, we'll see airlines relying on bag-matching to "screen out" explosives in luggage. Passengers: Standby to Standby. The problem with bag-matching, aside from the fact it doesn't do diddly to deter explosives, is that it may well materially constrict the hub and spoke system, reducing the number of flights that can be handled at a given hub within a given period of time. That means that airlines may have to cut back the number of flights through the hub. Gee, do you think they'll cut flights to Lansing, or to Los Angeles? Gee, will they'll cut flights to Grand Junction, or to Seattle? Here's how it gets ugly. The bag match process will require increased lead times to get passengers in their seats, the luggage on, and the paperwork reconciled. That can mean the necessity of longer connect times. Ultimately, flight schedules will need to be revised to spread out connecting banks. Hence, less flights. (No, Congress, not more delays. Ultimately less flights. So when Springfield loses some of its air service, Senator Durban can look himself in the mirror and tell himself why.) Then we have the issue of late inbound connecting passengers. Bad weather or Jane Garvey's bailing-wire ATC system causes a flight to get into O'Hare late, say 15 minutes before the connecting flight is to depart. The connecting passengers can make the connection, but it might entail a substantial delay to get their luggage transferred and verified. So the airline might have the unpleasant choice, delay the flight, which would cascade into more delays throughout the airplane's operational day, or simply not board the late connecting passengers. Obviously, the second option will inconvenience the least number of passengers. But that's cold comfort to the folks left at the gate, especially if the later flights are full to their final destination. The unknown in all this is the new Transportation Security Agency, which is likely made up of FAA retreads. They reportedly have not yet issued a final rule on whether connecting bags will need to be matched. Indications are that they will require it (the political pressures, what with the false promises made by Congress and all, will be enormous.) But the final rule won't be until Wednesday - less than 48 hours before it goes into effect. So, we can look for the possibility of less service, more inconvenience, and some communities ultimately losing some air service. All because Congress wanted a PR stunt to show that they're getting tough with airlines. But we won't be one bit more secure. Friday will likely be a media day of cameras rolling, showing beagles sniffing luggage, the CT screening machines mistaking Mars Bars for C-4, and the inevitable interviews with inconvenienced passengers, all convinced that this requirement by Congress is just sooo-great, with the little downside that their flight was canceled. But it will be a perfect situation for both Congress and the DOT. The airlines will get all the blame for being unable to comply with this important security "enhancement." It's a shame that the airline industry is setting themselves up for this. After all, the higher costs and constricted capacity sure won't help the bottom line or get furloughed workers back. Proud to be an American, Jim Hann Waterski J-41 Captain STL